In my last posting, on March 21, I arrogantly stated that I could predict which of the 40 sitcom pilots ordered by the four broadcast networks were most likely to actually make the fall schedules.  I cynically wrote that since pilots are picked up almost exclusively for business reasons, I could guess which pilots would make the four network schedules without reading the scripts or viewing the finished product.  Rather, I could predict which pilots would be sent to series based on the heavyweight names attached to the projects and/or network ownership.

So how did I actually do in predicting which pilots would make the Fall 2011 network schedules?  I’m not afraid to show my results.

Here are my predictions from my March 21, 2011 blog for each network followed by what was actually ordered:

CBS

On March 21, I predicted:

“Regardless of CBS’ ultimate plans, there are six pilots with heavyweight names attached, anyone of which might get a production order.  Those top candidates are: Two Broke Girls from Sex and the City creator Michael Patrick King, a pilot listed as Untitled Peter Knight Office Comedy from Adam Sandler’s powerhouse Happy Madison Productions with Neil Patrick Harris attached as a producer, How To Be A Gentleman, which CBS owns, based on the book of the same name (I’d say this is the favorite), a pilot listed as Untitled Sports Radio, based on Colin Cowherd’s ESPN radio show and also owned by CBS, as well as two other network-owned projects, Assistants and a pilot tentatively titled Rob Schneider Project starring you know who.  Look for little change at CBS in the fall, but perhaps two of these top six pilots will get a mid-season nod.”

CBS ordered:

Two Broke Girls and How To Be A Gentleman.

I was wrong in thinking that Two and a Half Men would not be back, but right in knowing in my bones that Charlie Sheen would not be rehired. As to the hiring of Ashton Kutcher to replace Charlie Sheen, we'll see.  If anyone can pull this off, it's Chuck Lorre.  I expect big curiosity ratings as viewers tune in to see the reconfigured Men, but will a series in its ninth season have the energy to survive without its original star?  Stay tuned.

In what is perhaps the weirdest programming decision of 2011, CBS has elected to move perennial mid-season replacement series Rules of Engagement to Saturday, to be followed by what is dubbed, “Comedy Time Saturday.”  What is Comedy Time Saturday?  It’s a placeholder half-hour time slot that will be filled by reruns of CBS’s other sitcoms, such as How I Met Your Mother or Mike and Molly.  Weird.

NBC

On March 21, I predicted:

“Of the twelve sitcom pilots ordered by NBC, I’d say only two have a shot.  One is Are You There, Vodka?  It’s Me, Chelsea.  That may be the longest title ever for a sitcom, but with Chelsea Handler starring and based on her best-selling book, I’d say this pilot is nearly a lock to be on the fall schedule.  The only other NBC sitcom pilot with a chance might be Untitled Emily Spivey Project from Lorne Michaels.”

NBC ordered:

Are You There Vodka?  It’s Me, Chelsea, Up All Night (aka Untitled Emily Spivey Project starring Christina Applegate), and Free Agents (from Universal, NBC’s parent company, starring Hank Azaria.)

Chelsea Handler’s series will be held until mid-season, probably so it can premiere alongside the season opener of 30 Rock, which will return later in the year due to Tina Fey’s pregnancy. 

I didn’t predict Free Agents would make the schedule, but it is owned by the network.

ABC

On March 21, I predicted:

“The five contenders, it seems to me, are Bad Mom with Jenna Elfman (although how many more times can Jenna Elfman strike out?), Last Days of Man with Tim Allen, Man Up, My Freakin’ Family, and Other People’s Kids.”

ABC ordered:

Last Man Standing (aka Last Days of Man, starring Tim Allen), Man Up, and Suburgatory.

I got two right, but missed Suburgatory.  Not sure where that came from.

FOX

On March 21, I predicted:

“Fox has ordered ten sitcom pilots, also a rather huge number from a network that really only has comedy success with cartoons.  Two of those pilots are cartoons.  One is Allen Gregory and the other is Napoleon Dynamite.  Both series are network owned, and I’d imagine that both have a shot.  Of their live action sitcom pilots, only three look hopeful.  Two are network owned.  They are Family Album and Outnumbered.  A third sitcom with maybe a shot is tentatively titled Liz Meriwether Project and stars Zooey Deschanel.  This seems like a series better suited to another network, but we’ll see.”

FOX ordered:

Allen Gregory (cartoon) and New Girl (aka Liz Meriwether Project starring Zooey Deschanel.)

In summation, of the 40 sitcom pilots contending for spots on the fall schedules, only ten made it on the air.  Of the ten pilots that became series, I correctly predicted eight of them.  Two pilots that I didn’t mention in my predictions also made it.  Those were Suburgatory and Free Agents.  In baseball parlance, I’m batting .800. 

I don’t know how you feel, but I'd modestly say that my cynicism fared quite well this year.