By my count, the four major broadcast networks have ordered a whopping 40 – yes, you read that number right – 40 half-hour comedy pilots for possible slots on their fall or mid-season schedules.  The CW network, to my knowledge, has not ordered any half-hour pilots.  Does this large number of half-hour pilots mean that sitcom is back… again?  Does it mean that scripted shows are on the rise while reality is on the wane?  Or does it simply mean that the networks don’t know what they’re doing? 

Unless some bold moves are afoot for fall – and when are the networks ever bold? - my guess is that they have ordered many more pilots than they have slots to fill and are once again wasting millions of dollars on development.  One thing you learn when you work in sitcom is that the only pilots that ever get on the air are the ones with big names attached – either a star or two or a hot-shot producer with a big monetary penalty to collect if his or her pilot is rejected.  Networks insist that they don’t play favorites with pilots that they own and will point to statistics to prove their point.  Yeah, right.  Pilots always get on the air for business reasons.  Pilots seldom if ever make a schedule because everyone thinks they are good.  In fact, almost every sitcom producer has at one time or another heard from some network executive, “Yours was our favorite pilot,” in the same breath with “But we’re not picking it up.”

Here’s a quick rundown of the half-hour pilots shooting this spring that I think have at least a shot at making it to series.  My guesses are not based on reading the scripts for these pilots.  I haven’t read the script for any sitcom pilots.  These guesses are based on what pilots I think have the best business chance of getting an order:

CBS

The network with the most successful sitcoms has ordered the fewest half-hour pilots.  Not a surprise.  CBS has the least amount of work to do.  Of the eight comedy pilots ordered by CBS, a surprising six might have a shot at a pick-up for fall or mid-season.  This will depend on whether CBS plans to expand its number of comedies, either on Thursday night where NBC has proven to be weak – and even weaker now with Steve Carell gone from The Office – or to another night.  On the other hand, why would CBS mess with success?  They will likely have an open slot on Monday night with Two and a Half Men most unlikely to return.  The logical choice, it seems to me, would be for CBS to move freshman hit Mike and Molly into the 9:00 pm slot and add Rules of Engagement behind it and Mad Love in front following How I Met Your Mother.  In that case, CBS would need no new half-hours on Monday night.  With The Big Bang Theory anchoring Thursday, CBS may renew the marginal $#*! My Dad Says, and leave well enough alone on Thursday.  Were that the case, CBS would need no new half-hour series for the 2011 fall schedule.  But surely they will order something as a mid-season back up.  Regardless of CBS’ ultimate plans, there are six pilots with heavyweight names attached, any one of which might get a production order.  Those top candidates are: Two Broke Girls from Sex and the City honcho Michael Patrick King, a pilot listed as Untitled Peter Knight Office Comedy from Adam Sandler’s powerhouse Happy Madison Productions with Neil Patrick Harris attached as a producer, How To Be A Gentleman, which CBS owns, based on the book of the same name (I’d say this is the favorite), a pilot listed as Untitled Sports Radio, based on Colin Cowherd’s ESPN radio show and also owned by CBS, as well as two other network-owned projects, Assistants and a pilot tentatively titled Rob Schneider Project starring you know who.  Look for little change at CBS in the fall, but perhaps two of these top six pilots will get a mid-season nod.

ABC

ABC has ordered ten half-hour pilots.  I have no idea what ABC has planned for its fall schedule.  So far Wednesday is their only comedy night.  Modern Family is their one sitcom hit, but The Middle muddles along with Patricia Heaton, Courtney Cox purrs on Cougar Town, and ABC has likely plunked down a large chunk of change to turn Matthew Perry into Mr. Sunshine.  Of the ten comedy pilots ordered, four are owned by the network, and one other has a bankable star.  The five contenders, it seems to me, are Bad Mom with Jenna Elfman (although how many more times can Jenna Elfman strike out?), Last Days of Man with Tim Allen, Man Up, My Freakin’ Family, and Other People’s Kids.  But what is ABC going to do?  Are they going to cancel any of their Wednesday comedies and replace them with a new series?  Are they going to try to open up a second comedy night?  We’ll have to wait to find out.

NBC

NBC has one long, endless comedy night: Thursday.  They have already renewed The Office, 30 Rock, Parks and Recreation and Community.  That leaves potentially two open slots if NBC stays with six comedies on Thursday night, (which has not turned into an innovative idea), and if neither Outsourced nor Perfect Couples are renewed.  The producers at Outsourced went so far as to have one of their writers plead for survival in a column in this morning’s Los Angeles Times.  NBC has ordered twelve sitcom pilots, which seems like a crazy number to me, but NBC has shown a complete lack of direction for years in the half-hour comedy genre.  Given that there’s new management, it seems unlikely that NBC will try to open another comedy night because they don’t have a comedy series on Thursday that is strong enough in the ratings to anchor a new night.  The Thursday shows limp along on ratings life support right now.  Of the twelve sitcom pilots ordered by NBC, I’d say only two have a shot.  One is Are You There, Vodka?  It’s Me, Chelsea.  That may be the longest title ever for a sitcom, but with Chelsea Handler starring and based on her best-selling book, I’d say this pilot is nearly a lock to be on the fall schedule.  The only other NBC sitcom pilot with a chance might be Untitled Emily Spivey Project from Lorne Michaels.

FOX

Fox has ordered ten sitcom pilots, also a rather huge number from a network that really only has comedy success with cartoons.  Two of those pilots are cartoons.  One is Allen Gregory and the other is Napoleon Dynamite.  Both series are network owned, and I’d imagine that both have a shot.  Of their live action sitcom pilots, only three look hopeful.  Two are network owned.  They are Family Album and Outnumbered.  A third sitcom with maybe a shot is tentatively titled Liz Meriwether Project and stars Zooey Deschanel.  This seems like a series better suited to another network, but we’ll see.

When I was producing sitcoms we watched the competition when we could, usually during hiatus or in reruns over the summer.  Even with DVR’s, I don’t think that goes on much anymore.  My guess is that sitcom producers and writers are not watching other sitcoms when they get home from work at 2:00 in the morning or when they are slumped in front of their giant plasma TV’s in a drunken stupor on the weekends.  My guess is that when a sitcom producer does check their DVR, they are clicking on recorded sports, a movie they missed at the theater, Tosh.O or Jon Stewart, adult swim on the Cartoon Network, some other trashy stuff on cable, or porn.  (We did not have all of these porn choices when I was producing sitcoms.)  Maybe some executives or agents are still surfing the sitcoms on behalf of their clients or to stay current with buyers, but I doubt it.

So writing specs is not the great choice it once was.  I still think you should write spec sitcom episodes for practice, but for a shot at work I think a spec pilot, spec screenplay, or shooting your own video is your best bet.